The Yankees Are Streaky

This has been a frustrating season for the Yankees. Since the last game I blogged, they went 10-6. They're within 6 games of the Red Sox and 2.5 games of the wildcard, after being so far from the playoffs for so long. 10-6 wouldn't be so bad in that period, if so many of the losses didn't come consecutively. Those 6 losses include 3 in a row against Baltimore and Detroit and 2 against the Angels, who last night thoroughly embarrassed the team with an 18-9 rout. 10 of those runs were driven in by Garret Anderson, which is disgusting. Garret Anderson is not a good baseball player, at least not any more. The man has 12 walks on the season, how on earth do you give him that many opportunities to hit the ball hard? The Yankees wouldn't be nearly this irritating if they weren't so streaky. They're prone to both long winning streaks and extended slumps. They're fully capable of scoring 10 runs in a game and then getting shut out the next day. The pitching is just as inconsistent as the hitting. Every starter has proven capable of being both great and disastrous, while the bullpen can either shut down an opponent for the duration of a series or get lit up every night.

Most of the players who were struggling early on have improved. Melky and Cano are both having fine seasons after dreadful starts, although they've both slumped lately. Abreu's also turned his season around after a bad start, and is making a strong case for having his option picked up. It's very fair in today's market, and there just aren't many possibilities out there, especially with prospect Jose Tabata's development being hindered by a nagging hand injury that now requires surgery. Johnny Damon still isn't near his expected production, although he's shown improvement in recent days. What's annoying though is Michael Kay being down on him for only having seven home runs, when he's a "20 home run guy". He's done that precisely twice in 13 big league seasons. After Matsui's huge surge in July, he's cooled off in August. Jeter's had a deceptively bad season. He still has a high batting average, but isn't driving in runs like he was earlier, he's not stealing bases like he used to, and his power continues to dwindle. He seems more like a non-factor in this lineup than he ever has, for some reason. Alex Rodriguez is still himself, with six homers since his 500th, although they still come in bunches, with three in two different two-game spans. First base is interesting. Andy Phillips was slumping again after being re-exposed to the league, and is showing basically no power, but has been better lately, maybe worried about his job since Wilson Betemit got here. Betemit is still prone to the strikeout, and really shouldn't be facing tough lefties, but he's still OPSing over .900 with the team. Jorge Posada is still amazing for his age, Jason Giambi has been good since returning, and Shelley Duncan hasn't stopped being a useful pinch hitter.

Mussina was going well for a while, but has been awful in his last two starts. Chien Ming-Wang has also struggled lately, but not as horribly. Roger Clemens has done well besides the bone-headed move to hit Alex Rios in defense of Rodriguez, which cost him a start and led to a brutal 12-0 drubbing by the Orioles when Jeff Karstens took the start in his stead. Whatever effectiveness Karstens had last year appears to be gone, as he's been demoted back to the minors. I still think he could be a useful long-man or back-end starter, but probably not on a team that intends to win. Andy Pettitte scuffled around the all-star break after a good-but-unlucky first half, but now he's rebounded and been on a roll, winning all four starts in August. He's been the Yankees' workhorse this year, and definitely who I'd want to start the first game of an important series. Phil Hughes has only had one good start since coming back, against Cleveland. He's been walking batters, which he doesn't normally do, and his command just isn't where it's been in his minor league career. He was doing well against the Angels, throwing four scoreless innings after a three run double in the second, but allowed two base runners in the seventh, both of which scored after he was taken out, making his start seem significantly worse. Right now, if they make the playoffs, I might make him the fourth starter instead of Mussina. His control has been an issue, but he still has shown flashes of his ability, and Mussina has really been terrible the last two games. By the end of the season, if they do make it, I hope Mike has things basically figured out, and I bet he gets the starts, with Phil going to the bullpen to help when he can. I think Phil has the potential for a Mussina-like career, which would be awesome. Right now though, he's been showing some rookie problems and mistakes, like not hustling off the mound to make the play on a grounder to first, which led to two runs and an eventual loss. Going by both the team's record in his starts (3-3) and his Win Probability Added (-0.02), he's neither helped nor hurt the team significantly. Also interesting is despite the fact that righties hit worse off him than lefties (normal), he's above average at striking out lefties while below average at fanning rightes (not normal).

Mariano Rivera's at that time of the year again where he struggles and we all question how much longer he can be good. I think he'll be okay for the rest of the year and hopefully will be effective through 2009 (he really wants to pitch in the new stadium), but he definitely shouldn't be leaned on as heavily as Joe Torre seems to like. He has other effective arms in that pen now, he just needs to mix them well. Edwar Ramirez has recovered after a disaster before his first demotion, and Vizcaino has been a pretty effective setup-guy. Kyle Farnsworth became a pariah, but after pitching some good games and striking out even-more-hated Gary Sheffield and ML-batting-leader Magglio Ordonez in a tight game, he's on the way to winning back some support. Ron Villone probably shouldn't be on the team anymore. I'd rather have another righty like Britton than an ineffective lefty.

You can't mention the bullpen without mentioning Joba. Since coming up he's lit the world on fire. In an obviously small sample size of 7 innings, he's given up no runs and struck out almost half the batters he's faced, with more than half of his outs coming on strikeouts. Obviously he won't keep this up forever, but it's raised an interesting question of his future role. If he can be anywhere near this absurdly dominant as a closer, some think he should stay there instead of moving back to starting. Having a good closer is important to having a good team. A pitcher with an average leverage index for a closer, who throws 70 innings with a 2.00 ERA, which Joba could very conceivably do, has the same VORP as a starter who throws 200 innings with a 3.69 ERA (Sorry about those nerdy, esoteric terms of discussion, you can ask if you don't get it). In a relatively pitching-strong season, that would qualify as 31st among this year's qualifying starters. That's a pretty good pitcher. The thing is, I think Joba could be that good without that much projection. He has a killer fastball and slider, and two more offspeed pitches with room to develop, which would be a very good repetoire. He could be deadly with just average command, which he basically has. He's also very good at maintaining his velocity deep into games, as witnessed in his minor league starts. A lot of the concern about his weight and injury problems has gone away. The fact is, Phil Hughes was the consensus best or second-best pitching prospect in the minors at the beginning of the year, and a lot of those same analysts now project Joba to be better than him. He could be dominant for years to come. A specimen with malevolent stuff, as Bill Simmons would say. I think a lot of people don't realize how many great closers were failed starters. Mariano Rivera is regarded by many as the best closer of all time. He was a bad starter before he converted to relief. You don't need an amazing, otherworldly closer to be a good team, just one who gets the job done. You should at least make sure Joba isn't your best starting pitcher (which he has the potential to be) before you make him your closer.