Playoffs and the Divison

This post would have been more relevant a couple days ago, but I'm writing it now. When Ian Kennedy won his first game, the Yankees were in decent shape. They were still five games back in the division but held a two game lead in the wild card race over Seattle. Since then, after stumbling for two games, they won 13 out of 16, virtually securing a playoff birth and actually getting within one and a half games of Boston for the division title. They're back to two and a half behind, but it's still not too much of a reach to say they could do it. They only have two more losses than Boston and would win the tiebreaker since they won the season series, so if Boston went, say, 4-3 in their last seven games, the Yankees could go 6-2 (not unreasonable with how bad Baltimore and Tampa have been) and squeak past them. I feel good about a potential battle with the Red Sox in the ALCS. The Yankees started terribly against them, losing five of their first six games this season, but won nine of the last twelve. They have been able to hit all of Boston's big pitchers and don't seem scared at all.

The question is if it's really worth it. All the division really means is pride. There's no real penalty for being the wild card, in fact, half of the World Series winners since 2000 were wild card teams. It shouldn't be a problem for the Yankees to line up their starting pitchers with the delayed start of the postseason, but it does make some sense to give regulars and potentially overworked relievers some extra rest while they prepare. Also, Cleveland and Los Angeles are still competing for the better record. The Yankees should want no part of the Angels, they are the only AL team with a record over .500 against them in the Joe Torre era and New York has played the Indians well this season. If they fight tooth and nail for the division and Los Angeles ends up with a worse record and goes on to bump them in the first round again, they're going to look rather silly.

Another topic is who makes the playoff roster. Jorge Posada has been unbelievable this year. He's fourth in the batting title race in the AL and has 20 homers and 41 doubles. He's had one of the best seasons ever for a catcher at an age where he should be declining rapidly. He's earned himself definite Hall of Fame consideration and a huge paycheck for next year. Alex Rodriguez will also be Mr. Moneybags, whether it's with New York or someone else. Hopefully Cashman does what he has to to keep him on the team, because that bat is irreplaceable. He hasn't homered in a while but he's just set a personal best for RBI in a season and hitting ridiculously. Jeter has come back on of late, starting to get out of his funk that seems to be stemming from leg issues he's had. Robinson Cano's found the power many thought he had in him. Jason Giambi isn't quite who he used to be, but he should still be playing in most games. In the outfield, Melky's regressed, but had some big hits yesterday and still has great defense. Abreu's been doing his thing and Matsui has also appeared to come out of his funk. Johnny Damon has been serviceable and has many uses even if he isn't starting. I like Jose Molina as the backup catcher. He's not amazing anyone, but he plays good defense and appears to actually know what a baseball bat is for. He could be a good backup until one of the couple of promising prospects the Yankees have gets higher up.

Let's see, that's ten position players. Doug Mientkiewicz has been good since coming off the DL with the glove and the bat. Normally, I'd put Giambi at 1B, Matsui at DH, Johnny in LF, and Melky in CF. But Doug should start at first with Wang on the mound or a starter who's bad against lefties opposing them, shifting Giambi to DH, Matsui to LF, and Damon to CF, sitting Cabrera. I like Wilson Betemit and Shelley Duncan as PH for IF and OF respectively. That's 13 positional guys, and you shouldn't really have 12 pitchers on your playoff roster, so we'll throw Alberto Gonzalez (the player, not the former Attorney General) in as a PR and defensive infield replacement.

Pitching-wise, your starters are Wang, Pettitte, Clemens, and Mussina. I'm not that confident in Moose's ability to shut down a good offense, but you can't really ask much from the rookies, and Torre's going with the experienced guy whether I agree with it or not. Wang is much better at home, so if the Yankees don't end up with homefield advantage I'd like to start him Game 3 at Yankee Stadium, but I don't know how likely that plan is to happen either. The Yankees have two other guys who can realistically start for them, Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes. Ian Kennedy has pitched better, with two of his three starts going for 7 innings, 2/3 of an inning longer than any of Hughes' starts. Phil definitely has the edge for long-term potential, but if you put a gun to my head and tell me to pick one to pitch right now, Ian's the guy. Four things though:

1) Phil probably has greater ability to get a strikeout when absolutely needed.
2) If either of them gets used, it won't be in a situation where they'll be required to go more than a few innings.
3) Phil lost a lot of time with his hamstring (and then ankle) injury, and needs all the innings he can get this season.
4) They really don't have that many good pitchers so I'd put both them both on the roster for mop-up/extra innings purposes anyway.

Anyway, 14 positional players, 4 starters, and the two kids leaves 5 spots, three of which go to Mariano Rivera, Joba Chamberlain, and Jose Vizcaino, after which, the last two get dicey. There are a lot of options and none are very enticing. Kyle Farnsworth was very good for a stretch, but has reverted back to terribleness. Brian Bruney gets strike outs but still gives up a lot of walks and lost an extra innings game with a home run to Greg freakin' Zaun. Chris Britton has given innings but doesn't show shutdown potential. Edwar Ramirez gets a ton of K's, but has an ERA over 7 that can no longer be justified by his sample size which is now up to 19 innings. Jose Veras also has good stuff but looked really ugly yesterday. Ross Ohlendorf has been pretty decent, but has only had a couple appearances. Ron Villone, who I was amazed to learn has thrown nearly 40 innings this season (No wonder, his Leverage Index is 0.32), really isn't that great but IS left handed and not named Sean Henn. Personally, I would use Ron to pitch against lefties assuming he doesn't stink up the join the last 8 games, and try to give Ross some more chances to prove he can utilize his good stuff well enough to help them in the playoffs. I'm not sure all of the guys I picked would be eligible based on the new rules for that stuff, and Farnsworth will probably end up sneaking on the team anyway because of his veteran status. As long as he doesn't get used, that's okay with me.

Update: I think my roster could work. You pick 25 players from those active or on the disabled list on August 31, and can replace those who are still disabled with anyone from your organization. I think Pavano, Sanchez, and Rasner were all on the DL then and still are now, so they should be replaceable, giving spots to Gonzalez, Kennedy, and Ohlendorf. I'm not sure though because the usually trustworthy Pete Abraham at LoHud did a post on the subject a while ago and didn't include Rasner on the list of DL guys for some reason.